Thus it begins World War 3

I feel compelled to write this blog in the wake of events that have brought all of us here.

I am not here to discuss, why all these events are happening but how we can survive the coming crisis.

Whats Happening so far...

This is very tight situation where de-escalation seems off the table for both sides.

The US has already begun a full naval power buildup in the gulf and there are reports that Some top Trump officials are moving onto U.S. military bases.

Adding to that there are reports on E-6B Mercury serving as a critical component of the US nuclear command, control, and communications (NC3) system has been confirmed airborne.

Operation Epic Fury is the U.S. code name for a joint military campaign launched by the United States and Israel against Iran on February 28, 2026.

Since then the strait of Hormuz , one of the important oil shipping lane has been closed for 17 consecutive days.

On the other side Iran has struck targets in Qatar (LPG Gas field)in direct retaliation for Israeli strike on its oil infrastructure.

CENTCOM destroys Iranian vessels in the Strait of Hormuz region

Note : So far it has been facts and here comes the speculation.

Will Nuclear weapons will be used ?
Personally , I believe not. But there is one specific scenario where that could change.

Pakistan has a defense pact with Saudi Arabia. So it is basically when the Saudi Arabia faces military threat, Pakistan is obligated to respond and Pakistan's nuclear umbrella is implicitly part of the defense pact.

Should the conflict expand, nuclear options would be on the table.

How to prepare.

Since all of us have lived in relative peaceful time. We are as humans not mental prepared for the upcoming crisis.

Survival Asset: Community

I know everyone thinking to save as much money as possible to survive this crisis but it will not work. The value of your money will go down heavily. 1 USD to INR is already at 93 INR. There is good chance of AI bubble might brust.

Here is the hard truth that most financial advice will not tell you money will not save you when resources are spread too thin.

Cash only works when there is something left to purchase. In a prolonged oil crisis, when fuel is rationed, food supply chains are disrupted, and power cuts become routine.

What actually saves people in sustained crises is community neighbors who pool resources ,local groups who collectively source essentials before the shortage hits retail. This is not just an idea. It is how humans have survived every major crisis throughout history, Including COVID.

Start building that now, before you need it. Not because crisis is certain but because a community built in good times costs nothing, and in bad times it is worth everything.

Mentally: The single most important preparation is accepting that this situation may not resolve quickly. People who anchor to "it'll be over in a week" will be blindsided. People who plan for a 6 month disruption and turn out to be wrong will simply have wasted some storage space. As India is betting by not raising the fuel prices now but soon or later they will.

Of course, this is speculation and you might disagree with me. I wish I am wrong and if i am wrong ill just go back to reading books again. Unfortunately I'm afraid not.

Follow and Sign up to the newsletter to stay updated.

More in depth analysis are coming soon.

No AI writing / tools has been used for this blog other than images. This is an AI free Blog post.

Beyond Hormuz, the Bab el Mandeb Strait the narrow choke point between Yemen and Djibouti visible on the map below is also at risk.

If Houthi forces or Iranian proxies move to close this route, it would cut off the Red Sea/Suez corridor entirely.

That means oil cannot reach India, Europe, or East Asia through either the Gulf or the Red Sea. Ships would be forced around the Cape of Good Hope, adding weeks to delivery times and hundreds of dollars per barrel in shipping costs.

What This Means for India..(Speculation here)

India sources roughly 85% of its crude oil through imports, and a significant portion of that estimates vary between 40–60% passes through the Strait of Hormuz under normal conditions. But we are not in the normal times.

The best current estimate is that India has approximately 50 to 60 days of oil at current stock levels before the disruption becomes acutely very painful at the consumer level.

In the short term, state run oil companies (OMCs) like Indian Oil, BPCL, and HPCL can absorb some of the price pressure the government will likely resist raising petrol and diesel prices immediately to avoid panic. But that buffer cannot go on forever.

The critical threshold is Day 60. If the Strait of Hormuz remains closed by then and given what appears to be brewing on both sides, that is a very real possibility India will face a hard choice: ration fuel, allow prices to spike, or both. Every industry that runs on diesel trucking, farming, power backup will feel it simultaneously and which already started with LPGs.

This is not a temporary shock. This could be the opening chapter of a structural energy crisis that, over the next two decades, will only grow more severe. We have not yet seen the worst of what is coming.